He is called a person within the shadows of Iranian politics. But Mojtaba Khamenei has a strong affect over a rustic that not often sees or hears him.
For years, the son of Iran’s supreme chief has been purported to be a possible candidate to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
That hypothesis has grown with the demise of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, who many analysts stated was being groomed to switch the supreme chief, who’s 85. Mr. Raisi’s demise in a helicopter crash on Sunday won’t solely set off new presidential elections. It might additionally shift the dynamics across the number of Ayatollah Khamenei’s alternative.
“When individuals began speaking about Mojtaba as a possible successor in 2009, I thought-about it an inexpensive rumor,” stated Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Clemson College who focuses on Iran. “However it’s not that anymore. It’s very clear now that he’s a outstanding determine. And he’s outstanding as a result of he’s been nearly fully invisible within the public eye.”
But a rising quantity inside Iran’s political institution have begun to publicly endorse him, added Mr. Azizi.
Mr. Khamenei, 65, is the second son of the ayatollah’s six youngsters. A conservative hard-liner, he grew up within the clerical and political elite of the Islamic Republic, established in 1979, and later fostered ties inside the highly effective Revolutionary Guards. Right now, he’s believed to play a important position in operating his father’s workplace.
However many Iran specialists dismiss the concept that the ayatollah’s personal son might substitute him as a hazard to the system.
Because the 1979 revolution deposed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, a small group of Shiite clerics that run Iran have held way more energy than elected officers. However a foundational precept of the Islamic Republic was that it ended hereditary rule.
“If the supreme chief turns right into a hereditary system, what does that imply? It means the system is lifeless,” stated Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of Amwaj, an unbiased on-line media outlet that focuses on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.
Mojtaba Khamenei teaches at Iran’s largest seminary, in Qom, however different non secular leaders have disputed his credentials. He has not achieved a excessive rank inside the Shiite clerical hierarchy, one thing lengthy seen as mandatory for taking over the position of supreme chief.
The place he appears adept, nonetheless, is in political maneuvering.
A veteran of the Iran-Iraq conflict, Mr. Khamenei turned a good friend of his fellow soldier Hossein Taeb, who later turned chief of the Revolutionary Guards’ paramilitary unit, the Basij, and later led its intelligence forces for a few years. Mr. Khamenei is believed to produce other high-level hyperlinks to Iran’s safety equipment as nicely, stated Mr. Azizi.
Mr. Khamenei was accused by Iranian reformists of enjoying a major position within the 2005 election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-line populist, who unexpectedly beat the main candidates on the time.
In 2009, after Mr. Ahmadinejad’s re-election towards the reformist chief Mir-Hossein Mousavi, antigovernment protests swept the nation. Responding to Mr. Khamenei’s suspected position within the election, in addition to rumors of his succession, some opposition activists chanted, “Mojtaba, could you die and never develop into supreme chief.”
Then, in 2022, in one other wave of antgovernment protests, Mr. Mousavi, who has been beneath home arrest since 2011, referred to as on Ayatollah Khamenei to dispel the rumors about his son succeeding him. The ayatollah didn’t reply then.
However earlier this 12 months, he did, as the difficulty of succession turns into way more urgent.
The cleric Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi, a member of the Meeting of Consultants that selects the supreme chief, advised the state-affiliated information company ILNA that Ayatollah Khamenei was vehemently against his son being thought-about.
The Meeting of Consultants should unanimously choose the supreme chief. Till then, they might select a three- or five-member management council to run the nation.
Finally, the destiny of any potential successor lies inside an opaque system that critics say has solely develop into much less clear lately.
“The truth is that no one is aware of,” stated Mr. Shabani. “And that’s loopy. There’s zero transparency on a course of that impacts hundreds of thousands of Iranians.”
