After President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran was killed in a helicopter crash, Israeli officers shortly dismissed ideas that they had been behind his demise, which Iranian state information media mentioned was the results of “technical failure.”
Analysts mentioned Monday that Israel, regardless of being one among Iran’s greatest foes, noticed little strategic profit from Mr. Raisi’s demise and was not more likely to change its posture towards Tehran.
In Israel, Mr. Raisi was perceived as a weak figurehead who had little affect on Iran’s international coverage, particularly its backing for Israel’s enemies throughout the Center East. Israeli consultants mentioned that his alternative was anticipated to take care of Iran’s stance towards Israel, and that the actual energy in Tehran lay with the supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
“From Israel’s viewpoint, I don’t see any achievement in his being changed by another radical conservative Iranian,” mentioned Sima Shine, a former senior official within the Mossad, Israel’s international intelligence company, the place she targeted on Iran. “The president isn’t crucial particular person in Iran,” mentioned Ms. Shine, now an analyst on the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, a analysis group in Tel Aviv.
With or with out Mr. Raisi, Israel nonetheless sees Iran as an existential menace, each due to its efforts to construct a nuclear program in addition to its help for teams which can be hostile to Israel, together with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
To restrain Iranian affect, Israel has assassinated Iranian officers and focused its nuclear and army services. In 2020, Israeli brokers killed Iran’s high nuclear scientist utilizing a remote-controlled gun. Earlier this 12 months, an Israeli strike in Syria killed three senior Iranian army commanders, prompting Iran to reply with an enormous barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles.
However Israel was unlikely to have killed Mr. Raisi, as a result of he, in contrast to skilled scientists and generals, is finally so replaceable, based on Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli professor who teaches Iranian research at Reichman College in Israel.
The killing of a nuclear scientist would possibly sluggish the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, however any Iranian president is more likely to preserve the identical antagonism towards Israel, he mentioned.
“His absence or presence” wouldn’t have a lot of an affect both manner, Professor Javedanfar mentioned. “The identical can’t be mentioned of a nuclear scientist, engaged on a program that would produce a nuclear bomb to threaten Israel.”
He referred to as Mr. Raisi “a foot soldier of the supreme chief,” and added: “He was a loyal servant, with little affect throughout the regime.”
