Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is named a person who likes to play for time and postpone large choices. However he might not be capable to try this for much longer.
Domestically, his coalition companions on the far proper threaten to interrupt up the federal government if he agrees to a cease-fire and doesn’t attempt to clear Hamas out of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
Militarily, the strategic logic is to finish the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. However diplomatically, his allies, particularly america, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire, and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties a large-scale operation would trigger.
So Mr. Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on a number of fronts without delay, all of which have a major impact on the conduct of the battle and his personal future as prime minister.
His latest warnings to Palestinians in components of Rafah to maneuver to areas Israel has designated as secure, adopted late Monday night time by the Israeli army’s seizure of the Gazan facet of the Egyptian border, signaled to his far-right authorities coalition, to Hamas and to the Biden administration that he would proceed to prioritize Israel’s safety pursuits. Extra vital, Israel’s extra slim battle cupboard, which incorporates senior opposition figures, backed these choices.
The seizure of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, to attempt to full Israel’s safety management of Gaza’s borders, has, for now, averted a large-scale and contentious army operation in Rafah itself, which is stuffed with displaced civilians. It could sign that Israel is making ready in the end to comply with a minimum of a brief cease-fire in Gaza, whilst the end result of these negotiations stays unsure.
“Netanyahu is being pulled in numerous instructions,” with stress mounting on him to reply, mentioned Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at Princeton.
Foremost is Mr. Netanyahu’s need to keep away from new elections, which might imply lack of energy and a renewal of the assorted court docket instances towards him. “Political survival at all times ranks first in Netanyahu’s calculations,” Mr. Kurtzer mentioned.
Then there are the competing pressures on him from “extremists in his personal coalition who need to proceed the battle,” he mentioned, and from the hostage households, who need the federal government to prioritize a cease-fire and a launch of extra individuals seized in Israel throughout the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assaults.
Externally, the stress comes from Biden administration officers and a few in Congress “who’re shedding persistence over the humanitarian state of affairs,” he famous. They need a cease-fire and oppose a significant onslaught on Rafah. Lastly there may be “the true, persevering with menace of escalation, particularly from Hezbollah,” he mentioned.
Here’s a nearer take a look at the political, army and diplomatic considerations Mr. Netanyahu confronts as he weighs his subsequent steps.
Politics
Mr. Netanyahu is determined to carry collectively his governing coalition, which has 64 seats within the 120-seat Knesset, or Parliament, a slim majority.
His far-right companions, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, collectively management 14 seats, they usually have vowed to depart the federal government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, leaving Hamas to say victory. They’ve insisted, as Mr. Netanyahu has additionally finished, that the army will transfer on Rafah.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former common and opposition member of the battle cupboard, accused the 2 males of “political blackmail” and of standing in the way in which of the return of a minimum of some hostages.
However new elections would nearly actually produce a brand new coalition with out Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich, so Mr. Netanyahu has some room to maneuver.
Agreeing to a type of non permanent cease-fire in levels, as proposed within the present negotiations, might permit Israel to cope with what it says are the 4 Hamas battalions in and underneath Rafah at a a lot slower tempo, over many weeks, particularly now that the strip of Gaza alongside the Egyptian border has been seized.
It could additionally convey extra hostages residence — not all of them, however a number of the most susceptible, in addition to some who’re lifeless and may very well be buried by their households. That might assist diminish the anti-government rallies usually spearheaded by the hostage households.
It could additionally go some technique to pacify President Biden, who might declare a diplomatic victory with a cease-fire, which might additionally permit way more humanitarian assist to move into Gaza, permit extra civilians to maneuver to safer areas and even to the north, after they’re screened by Israeli troops, and keep away from a full-scale assault on Rafah.
“Netanyahu is in no hurry to finish the battle,” mentioned Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator who now leads the U.S./Center East Mission, a nonprofit coverage institute. “He doesn’t desire a cease-fire deal that threatens his coalition or his potential to proceed the battle after a pause. He needs to tug all of it out, as a result of as soon as the battle is over, what’s the excuse for not having new elections?”
Army
Israeli army officers and analysts emphasize that reducing off the smuggling of arms and gear from Egypt by means of the tunnels underneath Rafah is strategically extra vital to Israel than the Hamas fighters left in Rafah.
Regardless of Egyptian denials of in depth smuggling into Gaza, Israeli officers imagine that a lot of the extraordinary arsenal and the constructing provides that Hamas collected in Gaza got here by means of tunnels from Egypt.
“If we finish the battle with out blocking the tunnels, we might allow Hamas or some other terrorist group within the Strip to rebuild their army capacities,” mentioned Kobi Michael of the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, a analysis group in Tel Aviv.
Nitzan Nuriel, a reserve brigadier common and former director of the counterterrorism bureau of the Israeli Nationwide Safety Council, labored with Mr. Netanyahu for a number of years. “Rafah is vital not due to the 4 Hamas battalions which might be nonetheless there,” he mentioned. “Rafah is vital as a result of the message to the Palestinians who stay in Gaza is that Hamas will be unable to manage Gaza for good.”
In any other case, he mentioned, Gazans would “keep afraid of Hamas and subsequently will cooperate with Hamas.”
Even a modest operation in Rafah “suits a number of of Netanyahu’s objectives concurrently,” mentioned Natan Sachs, director of the Middle for Center East Coverage on the Brookings Establishment.
Like many Israeli officers, together with those that desire a cease-fire deal now, Mr. Sachs mentioned, “Netanyahu genuinely believes an operation in Rafah is central to Israel’s total objectives — not merely in going after the remaining Hamas forces, however in reducing off their potential to resupply through smuggling by means of the Egyptian border.”
The army operation “additionally places stress on Hamas to relent on a few of its extra expansive calls for within the cease-fire negotiations,” Mr. Sachs mentioned.
Regardless of critical American considerations, a restricted operation now in Rafah fits Mr. Netanyahu politically, he mentioned, “with a proper flank that objects to a deal now, earlier than the principle operational objective is achieved, and going through public anger over the truth that Hamas remains to be standing, if severely broken.”
Diplomacy
Mr. Netanyahu is underneath monumental stress diplomatically — from allies like Washington and Berlin, from the United Nations, from the European Union and from regional Sunni Arab states — to keep away from a significant operation in Rafah.
They need him to permit in way more humanitarian assist to Gaza and comply with a cope with Hamas that might, a minimum of, promise what the present draft textual content calls a “sustainable calm,” relatively than a everlasting cease-fire.
However such a deal nonetheless wouldn’t resolve the basic divide between Israel and Hamas over easy methods to conclude the battle.
Hamas needs the battle to finish now, with the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the discharge of all hostages in alternate for a lot of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Israel needs to make sure that any cease-fire is non permanent, in order that Hamas can not declare victory and start to revive its management over Gaza.
Nonetheless, after Hamas’s most up-to-date concessions, coupled with the Israeli army strikes to manage the Egyptian border, a cease-fire deal appears way more attainable than earlier than — maybe even fascinating for Mr. Netanyahu.
However Gazans are cautious and mistrustful of Israeli statements. Mkhaimar Abusada is a Gazan political scientist whose college within the enclave, Al-Azhar, has been destroyed within the combating. Now in Cairo along with his household, Mr. Abusada says he’s satisfied that “it doesn’t matter what the worldwide group says, Netanyahu goes to enter Rafah.”
Mr. Netanyahu “needs to maintain his coalition authorities, to keep away from early elections, to remain prime minister and never go to jail,” he mentioned. “I simply hope he does it in a manner that offers in a humane manner with the Palestinian civilians.”
However ultimately, Mr. Abusada mentioned, Mr. Netanyahu “and Israel can’t be victorious after this battle, not with this a lot demise and destruction, with all of the Palestinian civilians and youngsters lifeless.”
